Saturday, March 5, 2011

Some commentary on the latest job report

From Capitalist Preservation, who rounds up some reaction:

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David Rosenberg. via Zero Hedge
"A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour." 
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From The Foundry
Today, the Labor Department released its monthly jobs report showing that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in February and unemployment fell to 8.9 percent. While it is always great news that more Americans are finding jobs, the reality is that the economy could be doing much better. Since the Obama recovery began 20 months ago, the national unemployment rate has fallen only half a point, from 9.4 percent in July 2009 to 8.9 percent today. Contrast those anemic results with the robust job growth that occurred during the Reagan recovery in the ’80s. By the 20-month mark of the Reagan recovery, unemployment had dropped from 10.8 percent to 7.5 percent – a 3.3-point drop. [..]
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From The Market Ticker
No joy here.

Summary: The report did not show any material amount of acceleration; it is, for all intents and purposes, flat. The Household Survey showed some people going back to work, but in terms of percentage of the working-age population the needle did not move to any material degree. The problem continues to be people we don't count as unemployed but in fact are, and as such the  statistical gerrymandering of the results will give both the left and right something to spin, but in point of fact there's no evidence of an economy that is recovering it's ability to generate both private income and tax revenues.
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Updated to include:
from Calculated Risk
This wasn't a great report. Heck, it wasn't a "good" report. But it was a little better than most recent reports.

If we average the last two months together, the 63,000 payroll jobs added in January and the 192,000 payroll jobs in February, that gives 127,500 payroll jobs per month. And that is a barely enough to keep up with the growth in the labor force. Private payrolls were a little better at an average of 145,000 per month, as state and local governments continued to lay off workers (something we expect all year). 

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